Sunday’s Colombian election was live-blogged by the Center for Economic and Policy Research, which states: “Colombia held presidential elections yesterday. Among a field of several candidates, far-right criminal defense attorney Abelardo de la Espriella leads with nearly 44 percent of the vote while left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda of the governing Pacto Histórico party came in second with nearly 41 percent. Since no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a second-round, the two candidates will proceed to a runoff on June 21.
“Only around 1.7 percent of voters cast a blank ballot, while most of the remaining electorate supported candidates positioned closer to the political center, leaving a substantial pool of moderate voters likely to play a decisive role in the runoff.
“Both President Gustavo Petro and Cepeda initially declined to recognize the preliminary results, citing concerns that 800,000-plus additional voter registrations had been included even though they do not appear in the official electoral rolls, and that their review of contested polling stations showed hundreds of thousands of votes with no corresponding registered voters.
“Cepeda also pointed to an unspecified number of polling stations exhibiting anomalous voting patterns. He argued that both issues would need to be reviewed and clarified by the official vote-counting commissions before any conclusions could be drawn. Until then, he said, his campaign would refrain from taking a position on the first-round results.
“Cepeda cited other challenges his campaign had faced throughout the electoral process, including foreign interference, particularly involving Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, whom Cepeda suggested may have been acting in coordination with Abelardo de la Espriella especially in the context of 100 percent tariffs levied against Colombian trade.
“Finally, he also called on other political movements to join a ‘coalition for life’ and to support his campaign in the June 21 runoff election.
“De la Espriella has attacked Cepeda and Petro’s response to the results, saying, ‘We will defend democracy by reason or by force,’ and urging the U.S. government to monitor the June 21 runoff.
“The Trump administration sent an unusually large delegation of 86 observers to monitor the election, including Colombian-born Senator Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), who appears to have violated Colombian election law by publicly condemning both President Petro and Cepeda and who has appeared in pictures supporting De la Espriella.”
PAOLA JAIMES SANTAMARIA, [email protected], @ceprdc, @PaolaJaimesS
Jaimes Santamaria is a research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, D.C. and a Colombia native. She said today: “Cepeda’s initial decision to wait for the official vote-counting commissions should be understood in the context of a broader pattern of concerns over the electoral process — from the reduction or exclusion of polling places ahead of the Pacto Histórico’s October primary, to the CNE’s handling of his participation in the March inter-party consultation, to long-standing questions about transparency and traceability in Colombia’s privately operated electoral software. Given these unresolved issues, calling for the official scrutiny process to clarify discrepancies before recognizing the results is not an extraordinary demand, but a basic democratic safeguard.”
FRANCESCA EMANUELE, [now in Colombia] [email protected]
Emanuele is senior international policy associate at CEPR and is in Bogotá, Colombia, where she observed the elections yesterday. She said Monday: “The election reflects a broader trend visible across much of the world: growing disillusionment with traditional politics and rising support for candidates who present themselves as outsiders, even when they are deeply embedded within the very right-wing political establishment from which they claim to be distinct.
“This dynamic is evident in the case of Abelardo de la Espriella. While he has cultivated an anti-establishment image, he is firmly rooted in Colombia’s traditional right. That reality was on display yesterday when Republican Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar congratulated him on X for his strong electoral performance and shared an older photograph of herself with De la Espriella and former President Álvaro Uribe, founder of the Democratic Center party. The post served as a reminder that De la Espriella’s ties to Colombia’s political establishment are not new, but rather longstanding.”
MARIO OSORIO, [email protected], @mariorosorioh
Mario Osorio is a research fellow at CEPR and a Colombia native. He said today: “The first-round election results caught many observers by surprise. Virtually all polls had placed the left-wing candidate, Ivan Cepeda, in first place for the first round, with many projecting Paloma Valencia, a right-leaning establishment candidate who selected a more centrist running mate to broaden her appeal, as the likely runner-up. However, Valencia’s lead over Abelardo de la Espriella appeared to erode in the final stretch of the campaign, as a growing share of her supporters shifted to his camp. De la Espriella’s strong performance yesterday, ahead of both Valencia and Cepeda and amid contested preliminary results, has significantly altered the dynamics of the race and set the stage for a highly competitive runoff in just 21 days.”