RAMZY MARDINI, mardini@uchicago.edu, @RamzyMardini
Mardini recently wrote the in-depth piece “Course Correcting Toward Diplomacy in the Ukraine Crisis” for The National Interest.
He is an associate at the Pearson Institute and a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of Chicago. He has previously worked at the Atlantic Council and the U.S. Institute for Peace.
Mardini writes in his new piece: “As a tool of foreign policy, threat inflation involves concerted and deliberate actions to misrepresent information and manipulate public perception so as to inspire overblown fear and outrage. In turn, this helps to justify costly and risky policies that would otherwise fail to earn sufficient political and public support. …
“Needless to say, Putin started an illegal and unjustified war. Yet, to enable a course correction toward a diplomatic solution, it’s the Western-based narrative about the war that requires a repudiation. …
“Take, for instance, the purported certainty in the West that Russia’s military sought to conquer a heavily populated and fervently nationalistic country nearly the size of Texas — and initially, intended to do so in a matter of days, no less. This belief is entirely baseless. …
“Today, the narrative of an unprovoked and maximum-aim war persists and dominates the public discourse in the West. … Now surpassing $53 billion in total aid since the war began on February 24, the notable U.S. commitment aims to keep Ukraine in the fight over the long term. By extension, it prolongs the effort to bleed and degrade Russia’s military in hopes of ushering in its retreat from Ukraine. …
“Centering on grievances and concerns over NATO’s role and its eastward expansion to induct Ukraine, Russia put forth a draft agreement in December 2021 to reset the post-Cold War security arrangement with the West. But in a delivered letter, the diplomatic proposal was declared by the U.S., in clearest terms, to be a non-starter. ‘There is no change. There will be no change,’ said Secretary of State Antony Blinken on January 26, in regards to the U.S. commitment to uphold NATO’s open-door policy to prospective members, including Ukraine. …
“In reality, Russia’s terms for peace will be difficult to defy in any eventual settlement. Moreover, prolonging the fight furthers the carnage and could likely worsen Ukraine’s negotiating power rather than boost it.”