AP reports: “European nations move to impose a ‘snapback’ of Iran nuclear sanctions at UN.”
SINATOOSSI, [email protected], @SinaToossi
Toossi is a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy. He just wrote the piece “Europe’s snapback gamble risks killing diplomacy with Iran” for Responsible Statecraft.
He said today that the move would restore “pre-2015 sanctions on Iran unless concessions are made within 30 days. Designed under the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] as a last-resort remedy, snapback flips Security Council rules: sanctions return automatically unless affirmatively blocked — meaning any veto secures reimposition. With the October 18, 2025 sunset clause approaching, the move is a high-stakes gamble meant to maximize leverage.
“The backdrop makes the gamble even riskier. The deal began unraveling in 2018 when Washington withdrew despite Iran’s verified compliance, leaving Europe unable to deliver promised relief. Tehran responded by breaching limits, and after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes this summer, it expelled inspectors and froze cooperation with the IAEA. Trust has collapsed, yet Europe is demanding additional concessions — immediate full IAEA access, an accounting of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, and a restart of U.S.-Iran talks — all under an artificial 30-day deadline.
“Such coercion could easily backfire. Tehran may answer with more restrictions, faster enrichment, or even NPT withdrawal — steps that would push it toward a hardened deterrent posture resembling North Korea’s. If UN sanctions are reimposed, enforcement would be shaky too, since Russia and China are unlikely to recognize a unilateral snapback, leaving sanctions applied inconsistently and undermining the UN itself. In short, Europe risks trading a fragile but salvageable diplomatic framework for a fleeting squeeze that could collapse prospects for a deal.”
In 2020, Toossi co-wrote the piece “U.S. sanctions have caused Iranians untold misery — and achieved nothing.”
See past IPA news releases: “Nuclear Threats 80 Years After Hiroshima and Nagasaki” and “Is Israel Using Nuclear Blackmail Against the U.S.?”