Experts from the Center for Election Innovation and Research, the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, and the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law gathered for a webinar on Oct. 30, “Red, White & Coup: Mapping Threats of Violence Around the 2024 Election.” They discussed credible threats to election integrity and safety before, during, and after the election.
WENDY VIA; wendy@globalextremism.org
Via is the president and cofounder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE).
Via told the Institute for Public Accuracy: “What’s the same and what’s different between 2020 and 2024? The primary thing that is different is that while there was talk of a stolen election in 2020, at that time, both the hardcore groups like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers and the so-called mainstream groups that filed the lawsuits and challenged things in court, weren’t set up to do what they are set up to do now. Those who are anticipating rejecting the election results have learned a lot of lessons from 2020 to 2024. We don’t know exactly what’s going to happen, but those groups are preparing to reject the results. They have their methods in place already: they have already started filing lawsuits; they have poll watchers to make sure that the election isn’t being ‘stolen’ and that there are no shenanigans with the ballots; they have changed the laws in several states about how to count and certify ballots.
“During 2020, the election took place during the Covid-19 pandemic. There was anger about the lockdown. There were large racial justice protests after the death of George Floyd. There were counter protests. That was the atmosphere in 2020. In 2024, thank goodness, we aren’t in a pandemic, and people aren’t in the streets in the same way. The election offices, bureaus, and commissions have all learned a lot too. They have more security. In some places, it’s shameful how much security they have to have; there are snipers on the roof [of the tabulation center] in Maricopa County. I’m glad Arizona is taking steps to protect voters and election workers. But that works as intimidation, too. We have already seen a massive loss of election workers. Meanwhile, law enforcement and other agencies have been trained in de-escalation methods. That way, if we have protests after the election, they won’t get to the level they did in 2020. We also have nonpartisan groups getting involved. The group We the Veterans has recruited more than 100,000 veterans to work the polls. We have also been trying to get guns banned at the polls. So far, 17 states and D.C. have banned them.
“But there are also things that have gotten worse since 2020. We have already seen a DNC office shot up in Arizona. Someone was punched during early voting. But we hope it’s not more than that. If we do see significant political violence, we expect it will be post-election. We do anticipate protest, depending on how long it takes [to get the results]. It could be that in some of these swing states, there will be a wider margin than we are anticipating. The powers that be will hopefully feel comfortable calling the election. Some are prepared to file challenges, which can cause a delay in the final count. In Florida, for instance, the ballots will need to be hand-counted. It could take 10 days. The public may not know that. The longer it takes to declare a winner, especially if it’s a close race, the probability goes up that we will see political violence. And if they call the race and it’s close, that’s going to impact the country’s feeling. Will people feel like they need to get out there and protect our democracy, like on January 6? We thought that January 6 would be the end of the Proud Boys. They’re not centralized, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t get together. Right now, they’re working ‘within the system.’ They’re volunteering at the polls, and they have an ‘election integrity unit.’
“We also know that there are conspiracy theories going around: that noncitizens are voting, that ballots were stolen in Pennsylvania, that ballot harvesting is taking place, that the government can control the weather. These theories are driving fear and anxiety. The posts going around in the hardcore groups include a combination of election denialism and violence. They say ‘we’re prepared for war’; that ‘any person involved in election fraud should be executed’; to ‘keep your rifles by your side.’ We’re seeing about a thousand posts on Gab [a social networking service known for its far-right user base] per week. That rhetoric has been growing through October. Back in 2020, that rhetoric was almost nonexistent until after the election. All of this [rhetoric] is on the margins, but that’s where these things happen. It’s also likely undercounted, because mainstream social media platforms have relaxed their rules and reduced enforcement. It’s impossible to track at this point.”