NADER HASHEMI, [email protected], @naderalihashemi
Available for a limited number of interviews, Hashemi just wrote the piece “Why Did the U.S. Bomb Iran Now?” for The Guardian. He writes: “According to American and Israeli leaders, Iran was about to construct a nuclear weapon. No serious analyst of Iran’s nuclear program believes this to be true.” See thread of video claims by U.S. officials about Iraqi WMDs prior to the 2003 invasion, from Pelosi to Rubio.
Hashemi continued: “If Iran’s nuclear program was not an imminent threat, what motivated the U.S.-Israeli attack? Why now? The answer is political opportunity. …
“First, the Islamic Republic of Iran has never been weaker. Decades of economic sanctions and government corruption have impoverished the average citizen while enriching the ruling elite. Official poverty figures reveal that roughly one-third of Iranians live in poverty, and the real figure is believed to be much higher. …
“Regionally, Iran has never been weaker. … In the event of a direct Israeli or American attack on Iranian soil, it was assumed that Hezbollah would open a second front against Israel. This is no longer an option after Israeli’s sophisticated attack on Hezbollah last summer effectively neutralized this organization. The toppling of the Assad regime in Syria and the weakening of Iran-backed militias in Iraq contribute to this overall picture of Iranian geostrategic weakness. This has produced a golden opportunity for Israel to press ahead in the hope of delivering a blow to its chief regional rival.
“Israel seeks to be the regional hegemon and for a long time Iran stood in its way. The real threat Iran has historically posed to Israel, rhetoric aside, has never been existential but rather strategic and ideological. …
“The real Iranian threat to Israel is rooted in Iran’s ideological opposition to Israeli and American policy in the region. Its ‘Axis of Resistance’ has sought to actively challenge, both in words and in deeds, western influence in the region. Iran and its allies have also sought to rally popular opinion in the Arab-Islamic world around this anti-imperialist theme. This is the real Iranian threat that the United and Israel seek to eliminate.
“During the cold war in Latin America, a similar situation existed. The enemy back then was Fidel Castro and Cuba. Regional instability was frequently blamed on communist insurrection orchestrated by Cuba and after 1979 by Nicaragua. Like Iran today, Cuba’s regional destabilizing role was grossly exaggerated in American foreign policy circles, and it was demonized in similar ways and for identical reasons.”
Hashemi is associate professor of Middle East and Islamic politics and director of the Alwaleed Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at the Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.