News Release

Assessing Threat of Inflation and Slowing Wage Growth


The monthly Employment Situation is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, June 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

DEAN BAKER, via Karen Conner,, @ceprDC
Baker is senior economist with the Center for Economic and Policy Research. He just wrote “Preview: Lower Unemployment with Moderating Wage Growth.”

Baker also just wrote “CBO Joins Team Transitory” which states: “Inflation is persisting at rates far higher than most of us consider acceptable. The future path continues to be the focus of the debate on economic prospects. On one side, many of us continue to believe inflation is a temporary phenomenon caused by the reopening from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. On the other side are those who see inflation spiraling upward to more dangerous levels, with a severe recession the only factor that can stop it.

“In its latest report on the budget and the economy, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) sided clearly with those arguing the case for inflation being temporary. The report projected that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, would fall to 2.7 percent next year and 2.3 percent in 2024. That is somewhat higher than in the pre-pandemic period, but certainly not spiraling inflation.”