Life Expectancy in the U.S.

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According to a detailed analysis published in The Lancet, the U.S. is failing to keep pace with its peer nations when it comes to increases in life expectancy. Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimated that U.S. life expectancy is forecasted to increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050, a modest increase which lowers the country’s global ranking from 49th in the world in 2022 to 66th by 2050. 

ALI MOKDAD; ihmemedia@uw.edu 

    Mokdad is a professor of health metrics sciences and chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington. Mokdad is lead author on The Lancet article. 

Women’s health is falling behind faster than men’s health. Female health-adjusted life expectancy, or HALE, is forecasted to decline by 2050 in 20 states. The U.S.’s global ranking for female life expectancy is forecasted to drop to 74th in 2050. “These rankings put the U.S. below nearly all high-income and some middle-income countries,” according to IHME

Mokdad told the Institute for Public Accuracy: “The differences in female HALE in 2050 between states are due to variations in diseases and risk factors such as obesity, smoking, high blood pressure, and high glucose levels. In general, females have a higher life expectancy than males. The fact that we see a decline in the global ranking for female life expectancy in the U.S. means that women are falling behind their peers in other countries at a higher pace than men. Women face different risk factors and drivers compared to men. For instance, women tend to delay seeking medical care for their own health to prioritize their children and other family members.

“Life expectancy is forecasted to increase in our peer countries by 2050. Right now, other high-income nations have better population health compared to the U.S. By 2050, the health outcomes in other high-income nations will see vast improvements compared to what is forecasted for the U.S. 

“This is a result of our poor health, high risk factors, lack of universal health care, and education. We need to invest in early education to prepare our children for school as well as to prepare our teens for college and ensure they get a good education. Our research shows that for every year of education that’s attained, the risk of mortality and morbidity decreases, regardless of where a person lives.

“We are not keeping up with other countries, including high-income and even some middle-income countries. Health aside, this has a huge impact on our economy. If our workforce is not healthy, we will not be able to compete and keep our economy growing. This ultimately prevents us from taking care of our aging population. Considering that people in the U.S. spend more money on health than any other country, the return on this investment is insufficient. The decline in our global ranking should be a wake-up call for the U.S. to change course, focus on prevention, and find new strategies and policies that work.”

Mokdad stressed: “Mainstream media is missing four critical points on this issue. First, poor health impacts our workforce and the economy. Second, the billions of dollars the U.S. spends on our health is yielding a weak return on investment. Third, our research shows that the U.S. needs to engage in a scientific debate on our programs and policies. Finally, we must take a closer look at our programs and policies to evaluate why we keep investing in what is clearly not working.”